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【6月24日】【管理科學與工程學院學術系列講座預告】The Local Multiplier Effects of International Trade: Theory and Evidence from China

[發表時間]:2019-06-20 [來源]:管理科學與工程學院 [瀏覽次數]:

  主講人簡介:

  張俊富,現為美國克拉克大學經濟系教授,博士研究生項目主任,留美經濟學會侯任會長。其主要研究領域為城市經濟學和勞動經濟學,研究興趣包括中國的城市化和區域發展,企業家才能與就業創造,高科技產業集聚,種族居住隔離等。研究成果發表在Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of Urban Economics,Regional Science and Urban Economics,Journal of Regional Science,Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization,Journal of Evolutionary Economics,China Economic Review,Small Business Economics等學術期刊。

  內容簡介:

  We estimate the local multiplier effects of exports on GDP and employment at the city level in China. Based on Eaton and Kortum (2002), we first build a two-sector multicity general equilibrium model to examine the mechanisms through which the local multiplier effects arise. We show that the export-GDP multiplier is determined by five sufficient statistics: the share of labor in local production, the share of tradable intermediate inputs in local production, the within-city expenditure share in the tradable sector, the share of other cities’ expenditure on tradable goods produced in the city, and the share of consumption expenditure on tradable goods. In addition to these factors, the export-employment multiplier also depends on local employment and the wage elasticity of employment. Using 1999-2014 city level panel data, we find that every 1000 yuan of gross exports in a city generates 919 yuan in local GDP. Moreover, a one million yuan increase in gross exports creates 5.8 jobs; for every 100 new jobs in the tradable sector, 77 new jobs are created in the non-tradable sector. To address the endogeneity of changes in local exports, we use an instrumental variable that combines the changed tariffs on Chinese goods and cross-city variations in the composition of exporting industries. Looking into different sectors of the local economy, we find that exports have the largest effect on GDP and employment in the manufacturing sector and little effect in the agricultural sector. The export-GDP and export-employment multiplier effects are heterogeneous across cities. Finally, we estimate the export-GDP and export-employment multipliers for each city in China using the formulas from the theoretical model.

  主持人:鄭亮 管理科學與工程學院 副教授

  時間:2019年6月24日 周一 上午 10:30—11:50

  地點:中央財經大學沙河校區學院樓4號樓320會議室

  

  歡迎感興趣的老師、同學們參加!

  


[編輯]:孫穎

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